He has challenged anyone who can refute anything on the Orange site to do so.
So I did. Orange repeatedly circles his links to some page(s) where he claims an old AA triennial study shows AA has a 5% success rate. This analysis is completely false, but most of his anti-AA cultee's don't have the ability to think for themselves or do basic math and lap it up.
(Just so you know.....the population of 100% is represented after month 12 on the graph but the anti-AA's claim and probably really think it is represented before month 1. )
So here it is :
mikeblamedenial, on January 3rd, 2010 at 2:28 pm Said:
The five percent retention rate is valid. AA’s triennials in the US have always indicated it, and the Australian AA study from 1994 said the same thing. Dismissing it as made-up garbage is a dodge, as is your assertion that anything he says can’t be relied upon because
Five percent retention rates have always been the norm in AA. Lots of sources indicate that. Dismissing it as made-up garbage is just a dodge, despite your adamance and vitriole. Nowhere has it been accurately demonstrated as wrong. It has been explained away, poorly, but never convincingly shown to be incorrect. Doubt, mischaracterize and dismiss all you like, you disprove nothing.
Tony J, on January 3rd, 2010 at 3:33 pm Said:
AA triennial surveys have never indicated a 5% success rate.
Why do you claim it does ?
Are you just repeating what orange taught you ?
Like I said, that claim is enough to discredit your whole movement.
mikeblamedenial, on January 3rd, 2010 at 7:55 pm Said:
There is no “movement”, as far as I know. Deny it all you want, or rationalize it all you want. Cherry-pick it. Make up some new facts. It still won’t go away. AA has single-digit one year retention rates, and most likely, always has.
Tony J, on January 3rd, 2010 at 9:57 pm Said:
You have no proof of that.
It’s all just random numbers to suit your cause.
When there are actual studies (probably never) then we can talk retention rate and success rate statistics.
Since we don’t have any, anyone claiming statistics is either ignorant or dishonest…..or both.
mikeblamedenial, on January 3rd, 2010 at 10:15 pm Said:
No, we can talk about it for as long as you care to keep denying it. You are well-aware of the studies which have been cited repeatedly. Since you have no evidence to contradict AA’s own assertions, I will assume that you are either easily misled or blatantly dishonest.
Tony J, on January 3rd, 2010 at 11:32 pm Said:
AA doesn’t make any assertions through a controlled study.
It is not I who is easily misled or dishonest.
You’re analysis of the triennial study has been soundly refuted. And all it takes is common sense and basic math ability to see why your claims are wrong.
As I said, orange shows that he is either ignorant or dishonest by citing that 5% number. The fact that you follow him blindly doesn’t say much for your own reasoning skill.
BTW, repeatedly citing the wrong conclusion from the wrong studies is not proof of anything.
If you care to show me how the AA triennial studies show that there is a 5% retention rate and/or success rate, please do.
Otherwise your just showing me how eager you are to please your cult master Orange.
I hoped to engage someone with the ability to think for themselves. So far, no dice here.
mikeblamedenial, on January 4th, 2010 at 1:24 am Said:
Common sense and basic math show exactly the opposite. For example, with bigbook sales at about one million copies/year for the last fifteen years or so, and a flat-lining membership during that same period, what other sensible conclusion is possible? Lots of people come into AA year after year, yet AA’s growth ended years ago. Most come in, look around, listen to folks like you and your pals for a minute, then hit the deck running as soon as they get their slips signed.
Here is a vid we did on the numbers awhile ago. BTW, exactly how are the numbers refuted, other than as shown in the vid? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-IH07-BVxg
Tony J, on January 4th, 2010 at 1:58 am Said:
The AA triennial survey shows that 26% of people that were present in the first month are still there at the end of month 12.
That’s what the math shows.
You claim the retention rate is 5% because that is the number on month 12. Like I said, you can’t do basic math and have no reasoning skills.
Any educated person can show you where you’re wrong. Go ahead and take that graph to anyone who understands statistics and see what they tell you.
Go ahead, I dare you.
As far as Big Book sales, how does that indicate retention or success ? That’s just a measure of how many people are buying Big Books. If sales are down it might indicate that new membership is down, but what does that have to do with anything ?
mikeblamedenial, on January 4th, 2010 at 3:52 am Said:
We seem to have run out of room on your last post. Your assertion that 26% of those remaining after the first month will still be there at the end of one year is absolutely correct. What you failed to mention in your fun with numbers exercise is that the surveys indicate that 81% of the original pool have already left AA by the end of that first month. 26% of the remaining 19% once again yields slightly less than a 5% annual retention rate.
{{{Note Mike admits that my 26% is correct but erroneously claims that 81% have left by the end of month 1. He has no clue what the numbers actually represent. }}}
mikeblamedenial, on January 4th, 2010 at 12:53 pm Said:
If you have any complaints regarding its content, conclusions, and validity, or the qualifications of the authors, World Services in NY would be the ones to talk to.
{{{Mike is now passing the buck telling me World Services is responsible for his assertion. WTF ?? }}}
Tony J, on January 4th, 2010 at 9:31 pm Said:
Nope. 81 % have certainly not left AA by the end of the first month.
Only 19% have been represented at that point.
Tell me how 81 people can leave a room when there were onlyl ever 19 there to start with ?
Riddle me that Batman ??
Like I said, take the chart to someone you know understands statistics and ask them to explain it to you. You honestly don’t have a clue about what you are saying.
Reply
Tony J, on January 4th, 2010 at 9:39 pm Said:
BTW, World Services in NY is not misrepresenting the data. You are.
Hence I am asking you to defend what ‘you’ are saying.
Passing the buck will not get you off the hook.
You asked me to demonstrate something wrong on orange's site and I just have.
You loose. You aren’t smart enough to know it, but you do anyway. Sorry.
mikeblamedenial, on January 4th, 2010 at 9:42 pm Said:
One more time. The survey report indicates that fully 81% of all attendees leave within their first month. Deny it, justify it, malign it, impugn it, you still present nothing valid. You need to re-watch the video I so thoughtfully linked.
{{{Mike repeats the lie and claims I have not presented evidence to refute it.....WTF ? }}}
Tony J, on January 4th, 2010 at 10:00 pm Said:
No Mike. Just saying it over and over will not make it true.
The AA triennial survey does, in no way, indicate that 81% of attendee’s have left after the first month.
Do you care to explain why you think it does ?
